Ii. Outlook of import and export in 2018
The international monetary fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9 percent in its latest world economic outlook released on January 22, reflecting the strengthening global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved U.S. tax policy changes. The IMF raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year by 0.1 percentage point to 6.6 per cent. Growth in advanced economies is expected to be 2.3 percent in 2018. Tax policy changes in the United States are expected to stimulate economic activity, with the short-term impact mainly coming from investment growth due to lower corporate income taxes. Tax policy changes are expected to have a positive impact on U.S. economic growth through 2020. The IMF raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2018 to 2.7 percent from 2.3 percent. Growth for developing Asia will be around 6.5 percent in 2018. The IMF raised its 2018 growth forecast for China to 6.6 percent from 6.5 percent. The IMF believes that India's economy will rebound and the asean region's economy will remain basically stable.
From the analysis of international market demand, many comparative advantages of China's electrical products still exist, especially through innovation-driven, structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, some new competitive advantages are gradually formed, and the ability of enterprises to resist risks, expand markets and develop innovatively has been significantly enhanced. "One Belt And One Road" construction has promoted the cooperation between machinery enterprises and countries along the belt and road. From January 1, 2018, the free trade agreement between China and Georgia came into force. Georgia immediately implemented zero tariff on 96.5% of Chinese goods, covering 99.6% of Georgia's total imports from China. China implemented zero tariff on 93.9% of Georgia's products, covering 93.8% of China's total imports from Georgia. In 2018, the ministry of commerce will conduct free trade agreement negotiations or upgrade negotiations with Israel, Sri Lanka, GCC, Pakistan, Singapore and other countries. At the same time, we will be ready to negotiate or upgrade free trade agreements with panama, Palestine, Mongolia, Switzerland, Peru and other countries. These are conducive to expanding the export of our electrical products. However, serious overcapacity still exists in some products, and enterprises still face many difficulties in production and operation. At the same time, due to a period of significant increase in the price of international raw materials, rising labor costs in China, the disorderly competition in the middle and low-end product sector is still intensified, as well as capital, environmental protection and other factors such as the increase in the price of input factors, resulting in increased export costs, for the further expansion of exports to bring many difficulties. In particular, the United States, the largest exporter of machinery industry, engages in trade protectionism and threatens to initiate trade frictions with China, which deserves serious attention.
According to the above analysis, it is expected that the import and export of electrical equipment industry will continue to grow in 2018. As the Chinese government encourages more imports and will hold the China international import expo in Shanghai in November this year, the import of electrical products will grow rapidly. Exports will continue to give play to the competitive advantages of some electrical products steadily rising, but to pay hard work.
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